3/22/10

Two years into recession and... how many more?

Well, two years have passed, the downturn became a real recession, even "depression" as the journalists like to say, and we don't see a lot of light at the end of the tunnel, at least in Europe.

Worst of all, the initially very bold statements about "changing the model", "stopping bad practices" etc.... were only that, [empty] bold statements. The banks have recovered somehow, the bonuses are back for the big fish, nothing changes.

Recovery in Europe is challenging: currency devaluation is out of the question for the less wealthy countries, the debt is still there at the same value, but GDP is falling. At micro level the debts are also there while the assets that back them have 30% less value.... frightening.

Then we have China, booming growth again, its currency still too low, despite the requests to adapt the value to the real economy from all over the world, exporting unemployment to the West. And CALA: always the same, except maybe (hopefully) Brazil.

I see that tourist bookings for this Easter are up 5% Year-on-Year in Spain, that's good, even if 2009 was an all-time low, up is the right direction to go. Also housing prices are stabilizing and 2nd hand homes are actually up some marginal percentage points compared to December. There are some "experts" (and also some experts, without quotes) that say this is a "W" situation, where we will go up and down again with even more momentum.... since nobody knows what will happen, let's be optimistic and start spending!!!


So what's left? Well, there are industries that start to show positive signs, also some clever strategies that should bring up the activity, so I have hope in the future.

I will give example by consuming some electronics (always my favorite spending) or some guitars. Tools are also attractive for us poor males.